The other day as I took in the morning news, the first article that hit me square between the eyes was about Zeke Emanuel saying coronavirus measures could last up to 18 months. Dr. Emanuel’s claim to fame of being the architect of Obamacare doesn’t impress me as anything to brag about. You might want to check out my post of the cost of healthcare. See, predictions in the political arena are merely about gamesmanship.
First of all, Dr. Emanuel is at least Obama leaning, after all, he architected Obamacare. We might even go a bit further to say he’s at least anti-Trump leaning, again, je architected Obamacare, the legacy that Trump wants to completely dismantle. I can’t argue with Obamacare not living up to its promises since what I saw was many of my children’s friends in the 20’s having their pay diluted by being forced to buy healthcare insurance. From an overall system perspective, I didn’t see an improved healthcare system; I saw insurance companies making tons of money, but more on that elsewhere.
Back to the prediction game that some play oh so well. Dr. Emanuel’s prediction serves two purposes: One, it flies in the face of Trump trying to get the country back to some level of normalcy as quickly as possible. Let’s be serious, America, and any country for that matter thrives on a strong economy. People working, businesses humming is what makes everything happen including government, transfer payments, and collecting insurance premiums to name a few. Without production we’re dead in the water, something that some people have hinted might me a good thing for the liberals. Let me take you back to last August when Bill Maher was touting a recession as a way to “unelect” Trump. When Anthony Scaramucci gave Bill a second chance to unsay he wanted a recession Bill responded, “I really do. We have survived many recessions. We can’t survive another Donald Trump term.”
So now that the market has dropped and Trump is working to manage the coronavirus pandemic Dr. Emanuel comes out with a dire prediction of not just months of self-quarantine, but a year and a half. Just what people want to hear to get more frustrated with their present situation. That’s political strike number one; make a statement that counters the President’s desire to get America back to work. It’s not an outlandish timespan, after all, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 lasted two years.
On the other hand, Dr. William Haseltine talked about how flattening the curve, a term we hear about daily, may not reduce the total number of cases or deaths, but merely slow the rate of new infections yet end with the same number of cases and deaths experienced over an extended pandemic period. In Dr. Haseltine’s potential scenario, he explains that removing social distancing recommendations too soon could lead to a prolonged pandemic. In one instance, Singapore seemed to get the virus under control quickly may have done just that, gone back to normal too soon as they are now seeing a rise in new infections. The real point is we need to use rational thinking to help guide us during this pandemic not flippant predictions with political undertones.
So what’s the downside for Dr. Emanuel? There isn’t any. If his prediction doesn’t come true, at the end of the coronavirus pandemic nobody will even remember his erroneous prediction. Even if somebody calls him out for an erroneous prediction, he can easily fallback on crediting the American people for doing such a good job guarding against spreading the virus they proved him wrong.
The bottom line is that a prediction contrary to the President carries no risk for a guy who supported the previous administration. Are these types of predictions orchestrated? Maybe, maybe not. Did Dr. Emanuel decide he needed to make this statement right now for the protection of the American people? Maybe, maybe not. Did he consider the impact of making such a prediction right at this moment? Again, maybe, maybe not. But his comment certainly can have an impact about how people view the current handling of the pandemic which he may have considered, or maybe not.
The real question becomes, would anyone use a national disaster or economic downturn as a political ploy? Definitely!
Dr. T